Survey warns that R$ 338 billion of Brazil’s economy is at risk due to environmental degradation in Indigenous Territories

Aerial view of the Amazônia rainforest. Credit: Bela Baderna/ Serrapilheira Institute

A landmark study by 10 scientists and endorsed by leading experts reveals the critical link between the Amazon’s Indigenous Territories and Brazil’s agricultural success. The study found that rainfall from these Indigenous Territories supplies 80% of the country’s agricultural activity, generating a staggering R$338 billion in 2021 – 57% of the national total. The conclusion is that the impact of protecting Amazonian Indigenous Territories extends beyond environmental benefits, playing a vital role in ensuring Brazil’s water security, food security, and economic stability. The study was conducted by a tropical ecology research group from the Serrapilheira Institute, which cross-referenced and analyzed data sets from sources such as MapBiomas, IBGE and Funai. Read the full technical note here.

The data shows that the Indigenous Territories of Amazônia significantly impact rainfall throughout Brazil, with 18 states and the Federal District relying on water recycling by the forests of the Amazonian ITs for up to 30% of their agricultural needs. In some regions of Acre, Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul and Paraná, this contribution rises to one-third of the total annual rainfall.

Crop and livestock production are among the most water-intensive sectors in Brazil. In other words, rainfall is a fundamental requirement for these operations. “Reduced rainfall due to deforestation and forest degradation in Indigenous Territories poses a serious threat to Brazil’s economy,” says hydrologist Caio Mattos, a postdoctoral researcher at the Federal University of Santa Catarina (UFSC) and one of the study’s authors. “This means that conserving these forests is crucial to safeguard Brazil’s agricultural production and, therefore, a significant part of the national economy.” 

Rondônia and Mato Grosso are among the nine states most dependent on rainfall from Indigenous Territories, yet they are also among the states with the highest deforestation rates since 1985.

Family farms, which account for over 50% of agricultural production in many states, heavily depend on rainfall from Indigenous Territories. This highlights the crucial role these ITs play in ensuring Brazil’s food security, as much of the production of these small farms feeds the domestic market.

How Indigenous Territories in Amazônia “Irrigate” Brazil

The Amazônia, through the recycling of moisture in the Indigenous Territories of Amazônia, acts as a giant water pump, creating “flying rivers” of moisture that bring rainfall to much of Brazil. Preserving Indigenous Territories in Amazônia is critical to maintaining this natural irrigation system, which is essential for agriculture in regions such as the Central West and South of Brazil.

“Although the influence of flying rivers has been recognized, this study is the first to quantify their influence using data available after 2020. This interdisciplinary approach considers these atmospheric rivers’ hydrological and economic importance,” explains mathematician and meteorologist Marina Hirota, a professor at UFSC. “In other words, this study goes beyond simply mapping rainfall; it quantifies the economic value of rainfall to agriculture.”

While indigenous territories make up 23% of legal Amazônia, encompassing more than 450 territories and supporting a population of approximately 403,600 people, they have experienced remarkably low deforestation rates. Between 2019 and 2023, only 3% (130,200 hectares) of the total 4.4 million hectares of deforestation in the Amazonian biome occurred within these protected areas.

Because Indigenous land use practices are often integrated with the ecosystem, involving management techniques that prioritize the preservation of native vegetation, there is an inherent link between protecting Indigenous Territories and conserving Amazônia’s rainforest.

The demarcation of Indigenous Territories has been at the center of public debates, as a controversial legal thesis known as the “temporal framework” (Law 14.701/2023) is currently under review by the Brazilian Supreme Court (STF). This thesis asserts that Indigenous Peoples only have the right to those lands they occupied on October 5, 1988, when the Brazilian Constitution was adopted.

“The data we analyzed confirms previous studies showing that protecting and demarcating Indigenous Territories is essential for the conservation of the Amazônia,” adds Caio Mattos.

The technical note is signed by 10 scientists: Hirota, Mattos, Paulo N. Bernardino, Bruna Stein, Gabriela Prestes Carneiro, Julia Tavares, Adriane Esquivel-Muelbert, Silvio Barreto, André Braga Junqueira, and Arie Staal. Nine authors are members of a tropical ecology research group at Serrapilheira. Staal, who is Dutch, is the only author not directly affiliated with the group. 

Established in early 2024, the transdisciplinary group is made up of Brazilian researchers with expertise in a variety of fields. These fields include hydrology, biodiversity, ecology, human ecology, mathematics, climate science, archaeology, anthropology, public policy, economics, and communications. “By bringing together scientists from different disciplines, this study was able to overcome the challenges of accessing and analyzing complex data,” said Hugo Aguilaniu, Executive Director of Serrapilheira. “This advanced research reveals the significant economic benefits of Indigenous Territories.”

The authors are also affiliated with UFSC, the Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG), Utrecht University (Netherlands), Uppsala University (Sweden), the Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies (USA), the National Museum of Natural History (France), and the University of Birmingham (UK).

The technical note is also supported by prominent scientists such as climatologist Carlos Nobre, physicist Paulo Artaxo, anthropologist Manuela Carneiro da Cunha (all from USP), economist Ronaldo Seroa da Motta (UERJ) and biologist Mercedes Bustamante (UnB).