The Gray Zone in Numerical Weather Prediction: How can atmospheric movement be correctly represented on scales of 1 to 10 km?
Science / Geosciences
Computer models of the atmosphere are fundamental to weather and climate forecasts. These simulations perform well for large-scale phenomena, such as cold fronts or hurricanes, as well as for localized events, including pollutant dispersion within a 1-km radius. However, they struggle with intermediate-sized phenomena spanning 1 to 10 km—a range known as the “gray zone.” In this range, models encounter significant limitations due to turbulence, which is the chaotic atmospheric motion experienced by aircraft in clouds and near the ground. This project will systematically investigate the dynamics of the atmospheric gray zone by integrating mathematical, statistical, and computational approaches. The primary aim is to enhance our ability to predict weather phenomena occurring on scales ranging from 1 to 10 km.
Amount invested
Institutions
- Universidade de São Paulo
