Last updated: December 10, 2020
Addressing COVID-19 demands a rapid response. Initiatives aimed at solving the problem must be backed with swift and flexible funding. Soon after the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the pandemic in March, Serrapilheira established an emergency fund to support research and science communication projects focused on combating the novel coronavirus.
We support scientific research that produces fundamental data to guide responses to the epidemic, including estimates of the true number of infections. In science communication, we support initiatives that disseminate reliable information about the virus. To date, we have invested R$3.3 million in six projects, alongside offering direct support for communication efforts, coordinating with government agencies, and fostering interdisciplinary collaborations. Learn more about the projects we support and some of their outcomes.
Science
ModCovid19: Mathematical Models for Optimizing Social Distancing
Updated: November 30, 2020
Researcher Tiago Pereira da Silva, from the Center for Mathematical Sciences Applied to Industry at the University of São Paulo (CeMEAI/USP-São Carlos), led the project, which created a model to simulate how implementing social distancing in each locality can prevent the healthcare system from collapsing.
This is because social distancing is a key measure in limiting the spread of the novel coronavirus within the population. However, current protocols apply a uniform level of social distancing across all cities within a state. These measures could be more effective—and their social and economic impacts mitigated—if they were tailored to the specific characteristics of each city or region. Learn more on the website.
Total Funding:
R$522,081.00
Preliminary results:
ModCovid19 has achieved progress on four interrelated fronts:
1) Robot Dance: Intelligent quarantine management
In three months, the team enabled the deployment of the tool in hundreds of regions and cities and established contact with public officials:
– ModCovid19 was incorporated into the State of São Paulo Modeling Committee.
– The group supported the Impulso Institute in providing recommendations to public officials on underreported cases and on the calculation of the reproduction number using the Farol Covid tool.
– UFAL professor Sérgio Lira, a member of ModCovid19, joined the Northeast Crisis Committee.
– The tool was presented to the National Councils of State and Municipal Health Secretariats (Conass and Conasems).
– The study has been submitted for publication and is available here.
– The corresponding code can be accessed here.
2) Smart Systems for Municipal Networks
Led by Krerley Oliveira (UFAL), the group partnered with the Association of Municipalities of Alagoas to implement an initiative that directly serves 100,000 residents. Some highlights include:
– The Clinical Monitoring System (SMC): Currently in operation in Maragogi, Alagoas, and is being rolled out in three other municipalities in the state. Beyond data collection, the software uses algorithms to classify cases as suspected, confirmed, recovered, or ruled out and to geolocate the addresses where patients received care.
– The Hospital Coordination System: Developed in collaboration with the Council of Municipal Health Secretaries of Alagoas (Cosems/AL).
– Semi-automated parental transmission networks based on SMC service records: An automatic contact tracing graph to map family relationships.
– Bots were created to export SMC data and integrate information from government software systems—such as e-SUS VE, the School Census, Bolsa Família, and the Family Health Program—into a single database. Since October, patients with symptoms and their close contacts have undergone PCR testing using this database. Some asymptomatic patients have already tested positive, and the identification of possible reinfections is currently under review. These results were presented at conferences and even received an award in the “health applications” category at the International Congress on Health Technology (Conites).
3) COMORBUSS: COVID-19 Simulator and Containment Measures
The COMORBUSS software was developed to identify efficient and safe measures to contain the pandemic while accounting for the diverse realities and needs of different communities:
– A social dynamics model was created based on patterns of service use, allowing direct simulation of interventions affecting community activities and estimation of their impact on viral spread.
– The software was tested with detailed data from Maragogi (AL) to identify biosocial criteria for infection risk and to develop more efficient testing and vaccination protocols, with similar studies planned for São Carlos and Manguinhos.
– After extensive calibration, the initial results highlighted the role of the Maragogi outdoor market in the spread of the virus.
4) Fapesp Database
– Fapesp has made three public databases available containing information on hospitalized patients with suspected COVID-19, including PCR, IgM, IgG, and IgA test results, as well as other tests, such as complete blood counts, diabetes markers, and cholesterol levels. The group is cross-referencing these databases with nutritional and dietary information from the population of São Paulo.
– A major limitation of these databases is the lack of standardization in the test descriptions, which makes the data difficult to use. To address this, the group is developing a Natural Language Processing-based methodology to automatically standardize the data and unify the three databases.
– The resulting datasets will also be used to support and refine COMORBUSS.
EPICOVID19: Trends in the Prevalence of COVID-19 Infection in Rio Grande do Sul and Brazil
Updated: December 10, 2020
This study, conducted by researchers at the Federal University of Pelotas and coordinated by epidemiologist and UFPel rector Pedro Hallal, is the first in Brazil to estimate the true number of people infected with the novel coronavirus. Reported cases do not reflect the actual prevalence of COVID-19 in the population because individuals with more severe symptoms are more likely to get tested. To understand the real magnitude of the problem, data must be collected from a representative sample of the entire population, rather than only from those most likely to test positive for the virus.
One of the project’s main innovations is the use of multiple survey rounds, with data collected at regular intervals. This approach offers a dynamic view of the infection status at each location and allows researchers to track its evolution.
The survey began in April in Rio Grande do Sul, in partnership with the state government, and received support from 12 other public and private universities. It was funded by Unimed Porto Alegre, Instituto Cultural Floresta, and Serrapilheira, with the Ministry of Health participating to facilitate nationwide replication of the initiative. Learn more on the website.
Total Funding:
R$1,500,000.00
Epicovid19 in Rio Grande do Sul
The study aims to estimate the percentage of Rio Grande do Sul residents who have been infected with COVID-19, analyze transmission dynamics, develop robust indicators for calculating case fatality rates, identify the percentage of asymptomatic or subclinical infections, and gather information on individuals’ social distancing behaviors.
– A total of 36,000 individuals will be tested and interviewed across eight data collection phases.
– The study includes nine cities: Porto Alegre, Canoas, Passo Fundo, Caxias do Sul, Santa Maria, Santa Cruz do Sul, Ijuí, Uruguaiana, and Pelotas.
– The database with the survey results is publicly accessible on the Epicovid19 website.
Epicovid19 in Brazil
The national study comprised four testing phases carried out in 133 Brazilian cities between May 14 and August 28. The Ministry of Health supported the first three phases, while Todos pela Saúde and Fapesp funded the fourth phase. There is currently no defined timeline for phases 5 and 6.
Preliminary results:
– One of the key findings is the gap between the number of officially reported COVID-19 cases and the estimated number of people who have actually been infected. Drawing on the results from the first three phases, the true number of infected individuals was estimated to be approximately six times higher than the official case count.
– The study also highlighted the disproportionately higher infection rates among Indigenous and Black populations.
– People tested: 120,000
– Prevalence rate:
Phase 1: 1.9% | Phase 2: 3.1% | Phase 3: 3.8%
Publications:
– Data from Epicovid19 served as the basis for a special interactive report by The New York Times on the spread of COVID-19 in the Amazon.
– Nine scientific articles have been produced on Epicovid19 data:
Six published in: *Nature Medicine* | *Ciência e Saúde Coletiva I* | *Ciência e Saúde Coletiva II* | *The Lancet Global Health* | *Revista de Saúde Pública* | *Pan American Journal of Public Health*
Three submitted: Symptomatology of COVID-19 in Brazil (Travel Medicine and Infectious Diseases) | Validation study of the Wondfo test (PLOS Medicine) | Childhood vaccination and COVID-19
Immune Response to SARS-CoV-2 in Brazilian Patients
Update: August 2020
The project, coordinated by UFRJ virologist Amílcar Tanuri, aims to understand how Brazilian patients develop an immune response to SARS-CoV-2 infection. The research team is focusing on a cohort of healthcare professionals at high risk of exposure to the novel coronavirus and includes professors Orlando Ferreira Junior, André Vale, Luciana Costa, and Ronaldo Mohana.
Tanuri, head of the Molecular Virology Laboratory at the Institute of Biology at UFRJ, is widely regarded as one of Brazil’s leading experts in molecular virology. A physician with a Ph.D. in genetics, he has concentrated much of his career on HIV, particularly its genetic diversity and mechanisms of drug resistance. Since 2000, he has served as a consultant to the World Health Organization (WHO) for HIV ResNet, the global research network on HIV drug resistance, and since 2015 he has also been studying the Zika virus.
Total Funding:
R$1,091,000.00
Preliminary results:
– 5,720 samples from 4,180 individuals were collected at the UFRJ COVID-19 Testing/Screening Center
– The samples were tested using the PTN-S ELISA. The results are as follows:
Negative result: 692 samples
Positive result: 2,849 samples (1,781 individuals)
No result: 2,179 samples (still to be tested)
– Development of a low-cost, highly sensitive serological test for use in epidemiological surveillance studies. The assay costs approximately R$5 per sample and is more sensitive than currently available rapid tests. If public agencies test 10 million Brazilians in the coming months, this approach could generate an estimated savings of around R$1 billion.
– The test is already being used by UFRJ’s Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) research group, with more than 1,000 patients tested to date.
– A study is investigating the humoral immune response and the behavior of B lymphocytes that produce antibodies specific to viral proteins (S, RBD, and NP) during SARS-CoV-2 infection. It aims to correlate these findings with patients’ seroconversion profiles and to quantify and isolate virus-specific B lymphocytes.
– The research group has successfully standardized a human B-cell cloning culture. Using this system, they have characterized the frequency of B-cell clones secreting immunoglobulins specific to the S and RBD proteins in six cohort patients. They have also isolated monoclonal antibodies targeting S and RBD from two patients, which were subsequently evaluated in neutralization assays developed by Dr. Luciana Costa.
– Article available as a preprint submitted to *The Lancet Infectious Diseases*.
Partnership with IDOR: Support for Interdisciplinary Collaborations
Serrapilheira and the D’Or Institute for Research and Education (IDOR) have formed a partnership to invest in and foster interdisciplinary collaboration on five research projects addressing the challenges posed by COVID-19. These projects are grouped into three broad areas: viral biology, mathematical modeling, and immunology. This collaborative effort includes the ModCovid19 study, led by Amílcar Tanuri, among other initiatives. Learn more.
Science Communication
Atila Iamarino: Information About the Pandemic in Digital Media
Update: August 2020 – end of funding
Since the first case of COVID-19 was reported in Brazil on February 26, 2020, biologist and science communicator Atila Iamarino has become one of the country’s leading sources of information about the virus. That same day, he hosted his first livestream on his YouTube channel. Beginning in April, Serrapilheira supported the production of content focused on this topic for his YouTube, Twitter, Instagram, and Telegram accounts.
Media outlets across Brazil have increasingly amplified the content produced by Atila Iamarino, extending its reach well beyond his own channels. He is a columnist for Folha de S.Paulo and has appeared on television programs on networks such as GloboNews, CNN Brasil, and TV Cultura. His interview on Roda Viva achieved the program’s highest viewership in recent years; on YouTube, it is the second most-watched Roda Viva episode, surpassed only by the interview with Jair Bolsonaro. Iamarino has also served as a scientific consultant to members of the Chamber of Deputies, senators, and ministers, supporting evidence-based decision-making during the pandemic.
Preliminary results:
The influencer built a substantial following on social media during this period (figures as of November 30, 2020):
YouTube: 1.3 million followers
Twitter: 1 million followers
Instagram: 955,000 followers
Between April 14 and July 10, he published 23 Instagram posts, 16 Twitter posts, and held 12 YouTube livestreams with support from Serrapilheira, reaching a combined audience of 18.8 million views.
A new funding agreement was subsequently established with Serrapilheira to sustain content production on the channels developed during the pandemic. In this new phase, the content will no longer focus exclusively on COVID-19, but will address other key scientific topics, using recent research publications and current events as starting points.
CoronaVerificado: Fact-checking Data and Information on COVID-19
Updated: November 19, 2020
Serrapilheira, Agência Lupa, and the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) have joined forces to produce analytical content on COVID-19 misinformation. A total of 26 columns were published in Folha de S.Paulo and on the UOL website between June and September (one column per week in each publication).
The project sought to go beyond fact-checking by drawing on data available on the CoronaVerificado platform, a Latin American alliance of fact-checking organizations, and the Coronavirus Facts Alliance, a global collaboration led by the International Fact-Checking Network. Its goal was to analyze whether and how identical pieces of misinformation moved from one continent to another, and how they evolved in the process. All of the project’s publications were made available by Lupa in an e-book.
Total Funding:
R$86,000
Folha de S.Paulo | Brazil Through Various Pandemics
Updated: December 01, 2020
Serrapilheira collaborated with Folha de S.Paulo on a series of special reports—combining text, photography, infographics, and video—exploring the impact of COVID-19 as experienced in different Brazilian cities. These locations were selected based on data from the Epicovid19 survey.
The reports portray how the pandemic transformed social relationships, economic activity, faith practices, culture, communication, and grief. In addition to the main series, this content was also adapted into 11 WebStories.
Resources invested:
R$50,000
